Fantasy soccer homeowners at all times concern drafting a bust. It doesn’t matter what, they’d prefer to keep away from the participant who tears his ACL in Week 1 or flames out so terribly that they principally lose their league on draft day. However the factor about sleepers and busts is that it is by no means black and white — there’s at all times a grey space. That is why we have returned with this yr’s model of our Growth-or-Bust Group. That title is supposed to acknowledge that the gamers on this checklist aren’t undraftable — they might all have good seasons — however at their present rankings and ADPs, based on FantasyPros, we would not need them (and sure, we now have evaluation and explanation why).
When you just like the gamers under greater than us, have at them. Hopefully by studying names like Dak Prescott, Aaron Jones and Rob Gronkowski, you be part of us in recognizing the inherent danger choosing them at their current costs. Profitable fantasy drafts aren’t nearly avoiding whole flops; they’re additionally about maximizing worth.
A few of final yr’s checklist was spot on. Cam Newton headlined the group, and everyone knows how enjoyable he was to personal in fantasy in 2019. Adam Thielen and Sammy Watkins and Vance McDonald positively had their valleys, too. After all, Derrick Henry was superior. So was Courtland Sutton. You are by no means going to bat 1.000 if you swing for the fences, however under we make our case — and also you would possibly simply wish to hear.
2020 STANDARD FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Operating again | Huge receiver | Tight finish | D/ST | Kicker | Superflex | High 200
2020 Fantasy QB Bust
Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Quarterback ADPs this preseason have aligned fairly effectively with our rankings, so our choice right here is not primarily based on some main distinction in opinion. Most rankings are increased on Prescott than we’re, and there is some equity to that — Prescott scored the third-most fantasy factors per sport amongst QBs in 2019. Dallas even added CeeDee Lamb to the equation.
On some ranges, that massive season could be Prescott’s peak, although. Dallas handed on the 21st-highest proportion of cross performs in 2019, opting to throw the ball 58 % of the time. Meaning 20 QBs, in an analogous yr, will get the prospect to throw greater than Dak. Prescott’s clearly proficient and has weapons round him, so he makes probably the most of these possibilities, however he’ll need to proceed to be environment friendly to place up the identical sort of numbers. His double-digit interceptions from a yr in the past counsel his effectivity might nonetheless use some work.
Once more, like quite a lot of gamers on this checklist, Prescott is not anyplace near undraftable. He is most likely a top-10 quarterback. He is simply much less more likely to end top-three than ADP would counsel and will simply be surpassed by a bunch of QBs who will go a number of rounds later.
2020 Fantasy RB Busts
Miles Sanders, Eagles
Sanders was picked for this checklist moments earlier than the Eagles introduced he is week-to-week with a lower-body damage (What is that this, hockey? Decrease-body damage?). An damage solely strengthens his trigger as a dangerous participant with bust potential.
Doug Pederson apparently does not care about fantasy homeowners emotions in relation to his working backs as a result of he loves to combine it up. Some video games final yr had been Jordan Howard showcases, and different instances Sanders was extra concerned (Sure, Howard is gone, however the level stays). Late within the season, Boston Scott received heavy involvement even when Sanders was apparently wholesome.
Sanders’ big-play capacity does give him stable upside week-to-week, however Pederson’s volatility and Sanders’ potential dependence on home-run performs makes him a riskier proposition than most RBs you are getting as a high-end RB2.
Aaron Jones, Packers
Here is one reality: Aaron Jones completed because the third-highest scoring RB in fantasy soccer final season. Here is one other: A whopping 42.9 % of Jones’ fantasy factors in 2019 got here through touchdowns. That was the very best proportion among the many top-11 finishers in RB fantasy scoring (Todd Gurley at No. 12 benefited from 44 % of his fantasy factors being through touchdowns).
After all, some working backs are extra apt to attain touchdowns than others, however Jones nearly definitely has some regression coming. He benefited in 2019 from a while spent because the lone lead again as Jamaal Williams handled damage. At the very least proper now, Williams is wholesome. The Packers additionally added Boston School standout AJ Dillon early within the draft, in order that’s extra firm within the working again room.
It is safer to guess on yardage season-to-season than it’s to guess on touchdowns, particularly now that Jones would possibly see a bit much less alternative than he did in 2019. That makes trying elsewhere on the RB place within the first or early second spherical is the best way to go. Much like Prescott, Jones is not a “unhealthy” choose, however there are many higher RB values.
2020 FANTASY SLEEPERS:
6 QBs | 16 RBs | 14 WRs | 10 TEs | 5 D/STs | One from every staff
2020 Fantasy Soccer WR Busts
Stefon Diggs, Payments
Diggs is not essentially being overdrafted, as he is going off the board as a back-half WR2. There simply must be some authentic concern about how huge his position can actually be in Buffalo’s offense.
Each John Brown and Cole Beasley surpassed 100 targets final yr. Beasley grew into a brilliant safety blanket for Josh Allen, so his targets will possible drop by lower than many count on. Brown would possibly transfer into extra of a deep-threat position, however he’ll nonetheless get appears, too. Diggs has solely ever actually needed to cope with one different good receiver on his staff at a time. There will even be all of the questions on whether or not Diggs and Josh Allen can click on instantly and if Allen will be constantly correct sufficient to assist Diggs produce.
Buffalo’s offense will stay dedicated to working the soccer, too. That is leaving Diggs trying extra at a season like 2017, when he had 64 catches and 849 receiving yards. You may need him in your fantasy lineup, however there’s only a much less thrilling ceiling on Diggs’ almost certainly end result than most understand.
A.J. Brown, Titans
How a lot do you consider in Ryan Tannehill? And the way a lot do you belief huge performs to repeat themselves year-to-year? These are the questions we’re grappling with in relation to Brown. He is clearly an thrilling younger expertise, however he does not come with out danger, making him the true definition of boom-or-bust.
Ten of Brown’s 16 video games a yr in the past featured him catching fewer than 4 passes. Solely 5 instances did he obtain greater than 5 targets. He made it work, averaging 20.2 yards per catch and never lacking an opportunity to make a giant play, but when the Titans stay as ground-heavy as they had been and Brown’s goal share does not change a lot, he has the potential for lots of quiet weeks.
Within the weeks Brown goes off, he would possibly win you your matchup, however together with his position in Tennessee’s offense, all it takes is one or two extra quiet weeks than final yr for his ADP to be too expensive.
A.J. Inexperienced, Bengals
Talking of boom-or-bust, that is Inexperienced in a nutshell. He was injured within the preseason final yr and by no means made it again to the sphere for sport motion. Accidents aren’t new for him, both, and at 32, he is not going to heal any faster. Getting him as a WR3 is not the worst guess on the planet, however it could really feel so much higher if Inexperienced remained the unquestioned prime canine in Cincinnati.
It is possible Tyler Boyd will probably be Joe Burrow’s prime goal, one thing that was by no means true in Inexperienced’s wholesome years with Andy Dalton. Rookie Tee Higgins from Clemson would possibly simply be a youthful, more healthy model of Inexperienced, too. Add in the best way Auden Tate and Alex Erickson performed a yr in the past, and the Bengals can each lean on Inexperienced lower than typical and be conservative together with his snaps in the event that they so select. Inexperienced might stay environment friendly in turning his targets into fantasy factors, however it’s most likely silly to count on something like the large goal totals of his prime.
2020 PPR RANKINGS:
Operating again | Huge receiver | Tight finish | Superflex | High 200
2020 Fantasy Soccer TE Bust
Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers
When you see it on the Web, it should be true, proper? On this case, we’re going together with that premise. You may’t click on via two fantasy soccer articles with out seeing somebody calling Gronkowski a bust. But he is nonetheless going effectively contained in the top-10 on the place in drafts based on FantasyPros. So, what provides?
Gronk is a future Corridor-of-Famer. He is again teamed up with Tom Brady, however he is additionally coming off a yr the place he spent extra time touting a CBD firm than he did taking part in on an NFL area. He is 31, classically damage inclined, and probably rusty after a yr off.
Past that, we are able to take a look at his 2018 numbers and discover a couple of crimson flags. His yards per catch was the bottom it had been in 5 years; his yards per sport was decrease than in any season however his rookie marketing campaign; and his ultimate three common season video games, wherein he performed 176 snaps, featured a complete of 4 catches for 45 yards. He did have two six-catch video games en path to a Tremendous Bowl ring within the playoffs, however Gronkowski’s development was principally downward. And for no matter motive, he acquired solely two targets contained in the 10-yard line the entire season.
That is to not say Gronkowski may have a depressing 2020 season. He’ll most likely have a couple of huge video games and catch some touchdowns, however each draft may have at the very least one participant who will attain too excessive for Gronkowski. Allow them to.
2020 Fantasy Soccer Protection Bust
New England was bit extra by the opt-out bug than every other staff forward of the NFL’s opt-out deadline. The protection will probably be with out Dont’a Hightower (choose out), Kyle Van Noy, and Jamie Collins (free agent departures) of their linebacking corps, they usually’ll nonetheless be using the helium in fantasy homeowners’ minds of final season’s cupcake schedule and unrepeatable landing output.
As you possibly can examine right here, we’re huge about taking part in the matchups on the D/ST spot. We additionally usually wait till the second-to-last spherical to draft a protection except your league format necessitates doing one thing totally different. And New England might be due for an even bigger fall off than simply pure regression because of the gamers they misplaced. Let another person draft the Patriots. In contrast to final yr, you will not remorse lacking out.
2020 Fantasy Soccer Kicker Bust
Robbie Gould, 49ers
Up to now, there hasn’t been a kicker spot on this checklist. However in every single place you look, Gould is in or close to the highest 5 of kicker rankings. It makes little sense. He’ll flip 38 in December and is coming off the worst field-goal proportion of his profession. We have seen kickers drop off the desk quick, like with Adam Vinatieri. Gould’s drop-off would possibly’ve already proven itself.
As kickers within the NFL have gotten higher at each accuracy and distance, Gould had his worst season in an 11-year profession (full disclosure: He made all his kicks within the playoffs, however nonetheless). Why would you draft him coming off of that? San Francisco’s offense is not even that potent to only trip the waves of tons of alternative. Younger kickers like Younghoe Koo and Michael Badgley and even Joey Slye, who spent a lot of the second half of final season in our weekly top-10 kickers, are barely being drafted (or in Slye’s case, not even near being drafted).
So long as you wait till the final spherical to select your kicker, there’s not an excessive amount of to be up in arms about in relation to your choice, however there’s simply no motive to select Gould. He missed all his kicks from past 50 yards a season in the past, so the extra distance bonus your league provides, the more severe a worth Gould turns into. Do not you at the very least wish to get excited as soon as this season when your kicker nails a bomb from 54 or 55 yards?